ETF Update- Take Profits In YANK

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ETF Update- Take Profits In YANK

The AUD/USD posted an intra-day high of .7810 on April 19th. Since then the Aussie has dropped over 5% and reached an 11-month low of .7410 during the NY session overnight.

And while the longer-term technical outlook remains negative, the current price action suggests that we could see a modest upside correction over the next week.

During this same period of time, the price of AUD EFT with the symbol YANK has traded from $13.10 to $14.55.

We suggest investors holding YANK should take profits at or near $14.40 and look to re-enter in the $13.90 area.

Yank

 

 

 

Aussie Dollar Dragged Lower On Tariff Fears

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Aussie Dollar Dragged Lower On Tariff Fears

As tensions between the US and China escalate, Australia sits uncomfortably in between its biggest export market and its largest investor.

Government data show that almost 30% of all Aussie exports are sent to China, while the cumulative amount of US investments in Australia is over $850 billion as of the end of 2017.

In addition, US overnight interest rates are now higher than Aussie rates for the first time in over 18 years, and the domestic current account deficit has swelled to 2.2% of GDP

This combination of factors leaves the AUD/USD vulnerable to a protracted down move over the course of 2018.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $13.60, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January 2017 low of .7160.

BetsShare ETF: YANK

 

Higher US Rates Pushes AUD To A Two-Month Low

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Higher US Rates Pushes AUD To A Two-Month Low

The AUD/USD made an intra-day high of .8135 on January 26th.

At the time, we noticed that this had a potential for a “double top” formation relative to the .8125 high posted on September 28th.

The Aussie traded down to .7760 overnight and the internal momentum indicators are now pointing lower.

The fundamental reasoning for the recent fall has been the divergence in interest rates between the USA and Australia.

Since January 1st, the US 10yrs have risen from 2.4% to 2.85%. Over the same period, the AUD 10yrs have traded from 2.65% to 2.85%.

We expect this divergence to continue this year as the FED continues to tighten rates and the RBA remains neutral. At this point, the US 10yrs have a high target of 3.25%.

This estimate is based on the FOMC raising rates 3 times during 2018, which would correspond to the AUD/USD trading back to .7150.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $13.20, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January 2017 low of .7160.

BetaShare ETF: YANK

 

USD Sinks On Mnuchin Comments

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on USD Sinks On Mnuchin Comments

Over the last 4 years, the ability of G-10 Central bankers to drive financial markets has risen to historic levels.

A perfect illustration of this dynamic was yestrday’s sharp sell-off in the USD after comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The USD Index fell over 1% and posted a 3-year low after Mr Mnuchin said:

“A weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities. Longer term, the strength of the dollar is a reflection of the strength of the US economy and that it is, and will continue to be, the primary reserve currency.”

It’s important to note that while the Yen, Sterling and EURO were all stronger against the USD, their domestic stock markets were all down over 1% on the day.

A policy meeting for the ECB is scheduled for later today. The EUR/USD has risen over 5% since the last ECB meeting in December.

It’s reasonable to expect ECB chief Mario Draghi to talk the EURO lower, which could mark a significant inflection point for the USD versus the other G-10 currencies, including the AUD.

The AUD/USD has gained more than 7% since mid-December. And while the RBA has not openly commented about the value of the AUD recently, they have been clear in their policy statements that a rising AUD is a “headwind” to domestic growth.

Investors who want to profit from  a lower AUD/USD can look to buy the BetaShare YANK ETF. YANK is an inverse ETF with a 2.5% weighting. This means that the share price of YANK will increase by 2.5% for every 1% fall in the AUD/USD.

With the YANK currently priced around $12.20, we estimate the share price to rise to $16.40 when the AUD/USD reaches .7150.

Call in for more information about YANK and the other ASX listed ETFs.

BetaShare ETF: Yank

 

 

 

 

 

 

ETF UPDATE: Aussie Dollar Hits 4-Month Low

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ETF UPDATE: Aussie Dollar Hits 4-Month Low

The AUD/USD has broken down to a 4-month low as local political turmoil combined with general US Dollar strength has the Aussie close to breaking the .7600 support area.

Softer import data from China and dovish comments from the RBA have also triggered investors to exit long AUD positions.

Internal momentum indicators are pointing lower with the next key support level in the .7540 area.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $13.85, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January low of .7160.

Aussie Dollar

Key Data Points For The Aussie Dollar

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Key Data Points For The Aussie Dollar

From a trading perspective, the main numbers to watch this week for the AUD/USD are the Chinese GDP and local employment data on Thursday.

According to the recent PMI readings, labor market activity has slowed and the headline jobs number is estimated to fall from 54,000 to 14,000.

Since posting a multi-year high at .8125 on September 8th, The AUD/USD has been largely driven by comments suggesting the RBA may join other G-7 central banks in beginning to raise interest rates.

If theses two data points show weakness, it’s reasonable to expect the RBA to keep its easing bias and the  AUD/USD to continue its downward trend.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $13.00, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January low of .7160.

 

Aussie versus US Dollar

 

 

RBA Preview: Will The AUD Get A Mention?

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on RBA Preview: Will The AUD Get A Mention?

The RBA has left overnight rates at 1.50% for the last 14 months. The overwhelming consensus is that they will leave rates unchanged at their meeting today.

RBA chief, Phillip Lowe, has been clear that even though other G-7 central banks are planning to lift rates in the future, that is not the path for Australia.

With no expectations of an adjustment in rates, the market will focus on the board’s monetary policy statement.

Since the the RBA last met, there have been sharp falls in the prices of Iron Ore and Coal. In addition, the Chinese Sovereign credit rating has been downgraded.

Considering that the AUD/USD has traded modestly down to .7800 on the back of those developments, Mr Lowe could include comments on the level of the currency in the statement.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $13.10, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January low of .7160.

BetaShare ETF: YANK

 

 

ETF Update: Aussie Dollar Slips On US Rate-Hike Prospects

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ETF Update: Aussie Dollar Slips On US Rate-Hike Prospects

The Aussie Dollar fell to a 1-month low against the USD at .7850 as comments from FED chief Janet Yellen increased the odds of a December rate hike to over 70%.

As the interest rate premium between the US and Australia continues to narrow, the AUD/USD will likely trade with increased downward pressure.

At this stage, the spread between the US and Australian 10-year yields has dropped to 50 basis points, the most narrow in over 5 years.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $12.90, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January low of .7160.

BetaShare ETF: YANK

 

 

 

 

 

ETF UPDATE: Aussie Capped In Front Of Today’s Jobs Report

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ETF UPDATE: Aussie Capped In Front Of Today’s Jobs Report

The AUD/USD posted a 2.5-year high of .8125 on September 8th. On that day, the US 10-year bond yields had dipped to a six-month low of 2.03%

Since then, the 10-year yields have climbed higher and reached 2.19% in NY trade today. The AUD/USD has traded lower overnight and is testing support at .7980; a break of this level will give scope to the .7910 area.

There are many components of forex pricing but yield differentials will always have the biggest impact.

As such, if today’s domestic employment report posts lower than forecast, we expect to see more downside in the AUD/USD.

Investors looking to profit from a lower AUD/USD can buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the price of YANK increases as the AUD/USD trades lower. It also has a weighting of 2.5%, which means the unit price will fluctuate  by 2.5% for every 1% change in the AUD/USD exchange rate.

With a current price of $12.60, we calculate that the price of YANK will be near $16.50 as the AUD/USD returns to the January low of .7160.

BetaShare ETF: YANK

 

 

RBA Meeting Highlights A Busy Data Week

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on RBA Meeting Highlights A Busy Data Week

It’s going to be a busy data week for the Aussie Dollar, which could lead to some increased trade activity in the AUD/USD. 

The schedule includes the RBA and Current Account data on Tuesday, followed by the quarterly GDP data on Wednesday, and then the Retail Sales and Trade Balance report on Thursday.

Any of these reports could put further downside pressure on the Aussie Dollar and return the pair below the .7800 level for the week

Investors looking to profit from the AUD/USD trading lower can look to buy the BetaShare ETF with the symbol: YANK.

YANK is an inverse ETF, which means the unit price increases as the price of the AUD/USD decreases.

YANK also has a 2.5% weighting, which means a 1% change in the AUD/USD will correspond to a 2.5% move in the unit price.

The current price of YANK is $12.70.

We calculate that when the AUD/USD trades back to the January low near .7300, the unit price will trade at $16.75.

BetaShare ETF Yank