ALGO UPDATE: A New Buy Signal In WFD

Shares of WFD are firming today after yesterday’s earnings report failed to inspire any material buying interest.

The company posted a 13.5 % rise in annual profit to US$1.55 billion, shrugging off tough retail conditions and competition from online platforms like Amazon.

Revenue for the year to December 31st rose 17.1% to US$2.1 billion.

Some reports have noted that the lack of specific earnings guidance in yesterday’s announcement has somewhat tempered fresh buying interest.

WFD was added to our Top 20 model portfolio on February 7th at $8.89 and our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal for WFD on February 13th at $8.55.

From a technical perspective, there is a momentum switch-point at $8.75, a break of this price level suggest an extension back into the $9.00 handle.

Westfields

 

 

 

 

 

ALGO UPDATE: WFD Is Technically Oversold

Our ALGO engine triggered another buy signal for WFD at $8.51 into yesterday’s ASX close.

This additional technical buy signal references a “higher low” formation relative to the November lows near $8.15.

Looking at the daily price chart, the gap from the takeover announcement in December has been filled.

This is a key development and suggests the current oversold conditions will likely be met with new buying interest in the near -term

Fundamentally, Unibail-Rodamco, the French retail giant which effected the takeover bid for WFD, has posted a 7.2% increase in 2017 earnings and expects similar growth in 2018.

Since a percentage of the $10.01 takeover price is script, it’s reasonable to expect WFD to get a boost from their result.

WFD was added to our Top 20 Model Portfolio on February 7th at $8.89 per share.

We prefer the long side of WFD at current levels with a medium-term upside target of $9.70.

 

Westfields

 

The US Government Is Back Open………….Until February 8th

The US Senate was able to agree on a short-term resolution to allow the Government to reopen until the 8th of February.

The US has not had a properly ratified budget since 2009 and these “stop-gap” agreements are now getting shorter in duration.

The DOW, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all responded by making new all-time highs.

Interestingly, as illustrated in the charts below, not only are the 2-yr Treasury notes now yielding more than the SP 500 in the last 10 years, but the Index itself is the most overbought in history.

We suggest that the extreme valuations on Wall Street will soften US yields over the medium-term.

As such, we would expect to see buying interest in the ASX yield names such as TCL, SYD and WFD .

Our ALGO engine currently has flagged buy signals in TCL and SYD at $11.70 and $6.80, respectfully.

2-yr versus SP 500 yields

SP 500 Sentiment Oscillator

 

 

 

 

 

Buy The Dip In Westfield Corp

It’s been just under a month since the Westfield board recommended shareholders accept $32 billion takeover from French firm Unibail-Rodamco.

Since then, the share price has softened, has never traded at the cash and script offer of $10.01 per share, and closed at a post-announcement low of $9.18 on Friday.

Part of the recent weakness seems to be tied to the cash component of the deal valued at USD 2.67 per share.

The AUD/USD has risen from .7550 to .7850 since the deal was announced, which roughly corresponds to the 4.5% fall in the WFD share price since December 12th.

With the stock going ex-dividend on February 13th for 16.43 cents per share, we believe WFD is good value in this range for a move back into the $9.80/90 area in the near-term.

Westfield

 

Softer US Yields Could Lift Local Names

The recent move higher in longer-dated US Treasuries has created a headwind for some of the yield sensitive names listed on the ASX.

Over the last 10 days, the US 10-year notes have risen from 2.28% to just under 2.50%.

This 10% move has also lifted the 2yr to 30yr spread from 85 basis points to a full 100 basis points.

The impact on local shares has been a 4.5% drop in TCL and a 3.3% fall in SYD.

Looking forward, it’s reasonable to expect the US yields to soften and the yield curve to flatten.

Given the current correlation to the local shares, we see the US flattening trade as potential positive for the local names such as TCL, SYD, WFD and GPT

US 2yr versus 30yr spread

 

Scentre Group, Westfield & Listed Property

Scentre Group announced their estimated distribution for the six month period ended 30 June 2017 will be $0. 10 cents per ordinary stapled security.

Scentre Group will announce its results for the half year ended 30 June 2017 on Thursday, 24 August 2017.

Charts – SCG

The chart  of Westfield below illustrates the price action is now in an oversold range.

Chart – WFD

Our Algo Engine triggered a buy signal in the SPDR Property Fund ETF.

Chart – SFL

 

 

ASX Yield Sensitive Names Rally

With bond yields moving lower in the US, we’ve seen strong buying interest in domestic yield sensitive names.

The rally is nearing the peak and taking profit  or selling tight covered calls is advised. History shows yields compressing below 4% will act as resistance for further share price advances.

Chart – TCL
Chart – SYD
Chart – WFD
Chart – SCG