Tag: ASX:TWE

Since posting a high of $19.90 on September 4th, shares of TWE have slipped over 12% lower and hit $17.40 in early trade today.

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal for TWE on Tuesday at $17.60.

This “higher low” pattern is referenced to the $16.50 low posted on May 30th.

According to a directors interest notice last week, the company Chairman, Paul Rayner, bought 18,700 shares at around $18.70, which lifted his personal interest to over 260,000 shares.

It’s our base case that TWE can continue to build on the strong FY 2018 results and the share price represents good value at current levels.

Treasury Wine

Shares of TWE have been trading actively since the release of their full-year results on August 15th.

It seems investors are weighing up the negative impact of increased trade tensions between the US and China against the positive bottom line news over the last year.

TWE posted a NPAT of $360 million for FY 2018, which was an increase of 33% on the prior year.

The strongest component of the report was in Asia, which reflected a 23% rise in volume and a 12% increase in net sales.

As such, the biggest risk for TWE is a material slow down in demand from their Asian customers.

On balance, we see scope for a pull back into the the $17.20 area and a medium-term upside target of $20.00

Treasury Wine Estates.

It was just over a month ago that TWE shares were hammered from $20.00  down to $15.60 in just a matter of days.

The catalyst for the 20% drop was a report that TWE’s business model had caused a glut of lower grade wines in China and the local franchisees were not happy.

However, CEO Mike Clarke was quick to step in and stridently defend the company’s distribution structure and future earnings trajectory.

So far this year, earnings in Asia are up 48% to $117 million, 8% in North America to $100.4 million, 17% in Europe to $24 million, and 28% in Australia and New Zealand to $68.2 million.

Technically, the internal momentum indicators are pointing higher and we see the next key resistance point near the $17.50 level, before returning to the $20.00 handle over the medium-term.

Treasury Wine Estates

Shares of TWE continue to rebound off of last week’s spike low of $15.65 and have reached $16.60 in early trade today.

The panic about a glut of Australian wine in China, combined with some minor licensing issues in the region appear to be overstated.

TWE officials have reassured shareholders that they are confident in their business model in China and the company will maintain positive earnings momentum globally.

Considering that TWE has been one of the best growth stocks on the ASX over the last 3 years, and traded as high as $20.20 just over a week ago, we suggest investors look to add to holdings at current levels.

Treasury Wine Estates

Since posting an all-time high of $18.09 on February 22nd, shares of TWE have slipped over 6% lower and touched the $16.84 level yesterday.

We consider TWE one of the best growth stocks on the ASX, but with a P/E of over 35X we prefer to buy it at lower levels.

From a technical perspective, we see good support in the $16.35/40 area and will advise on entry levels in subsequent postings.

Treasury Wine Estates

Since hitting an intra-day low of $14.55 on January 16th, shares of TWE have rallied over 20% to a high of $17.75 yesterday.

Upgrades from several analysts combined with lower tax rates in the USA have given the shares a strong boost.

However, in a recent preview to their half-yearly results, CEO Mike Clarke suggested that there will be a major overhaul to their US distribution network.

Early estimates are that these changes could lower earning by $47 million to $655 million in 2018.

In addition, internal momentum indicators are now showing an overbought condition above $17.00.

We suggest looking to buy TWE on a pull back into the $15.30 area.

Treasury Wine

Shares of TWE have started the week 2.5% higher today and have traded back above the $16.00 level.

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal at $14.80 on January 11th.

Several wire firms included TWE on recent buy lists, citing the company’s solid sales and growth projections into 2018.

In addition,  we expect TWE will benefit from the  lower tax rate for their USA-based business.

Based on the daily charts, we expect the next area of resistance near the previous all-time highs of $16.55.

Treasury Wine Estates

Treasury Wine Estates has been included in our Top 50 Model Portfolio since September 2014, when the shares were priced at $4.90.

The ALGO engine has triggered several buy signals since then and we have bought and sold this stock successfully for customer accounts over the last 3 years.

We noticed that ALGO buy signals have occurred on a “higher low” pattern and after an approximate 10% pull back in the share price.

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal at the ASX close yesterday at $14.80.

Prior to yesterday’s signal, the most recent buy signal was on July 12th at $12.30. This signal was on a “lower high” pattern and about 10% below the June 16th high of $13.75

Similarly, yesterday’s buy signal at $14.80 pencils out to a 10% correction from the December 20th high at $16.55.

Fundamentally, we believe that TWE has a very solid growth and distribution model and new highs above $16.55 will be reached over the medium term.

Treasury Wine Estates

Shares of Treasury Wine Estates are down over 1% in early trade at $15.60.

This is almost $1.00 lower than their all-time high of $16.55 posted on December 20th.

TWE shares rose close to 50% in calendar year 2017 on increasing revenue and strategic acquisitions in Australia, Europe and the USA.

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal in TWE on July 11th at $12.45 and in our Top 50 model portfolio since September 2014.

We suggest adding to long TWE positions on this pullback to the $15.50 area for a move back above $16.50 over the medium-term.

Treasury Wine Estates