TWE – Buy

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine buy conditions.

TWE continues to adjust to a post pandemic/post Chinese tariff environment. FY21 EBIT of $510 exceeded market expectations. After a number of years of disappointment for TWE in this region, we see America’s division accelerating growth into FY22.

FY22 EBIT growth is forecast to be in the mid to high single-digit range.

8/11 update: Buy above the $11.50 support range and place the stop loss below the recent pivot low of $11.48.

TWE – FY22 Earnings

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine buy conditions.

TWE continues to adjust to a post pandemic/post Chinese tariff environment. FY21 EBIT of $510 exceeded market expectations. After a number of years of disappointment for TWE in this region, we see America’s division accelerating growth into FY22.

FY22 EBIT growth is forecast to be in the mid to high single-digit range.

TWE – FY22 Earnings

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine buy conditions.

TWE continues to adjust to a post pandemic/post Chinese tariff environment. FY21 EBIT of $510 exceeded market expectations. After a number of years of disappointment for TWE in this region, we see America’s division accelerating growth into FY22.

FY22 EBIT growth is forecast to be in the mid to high single-digit range.

Treasury Wines – Algo Buy

Treasury Wine Estates is now under Algo Engine buy conditions after a 50% sell off from the 2018 highs.

The company’s distribution and operating margin issues are well documented but we now start to ask, if this is the inflection point in company earnings?

Join us for Monday night’s webinar where we’ll take a closer look at the trends impacting the earnings outlook for TWE.

Treasury Wines – Sellers are in Control

Treasury Wine Estates is under Algo Engine sell conditions and we highlight the recent softness in US sales data as a concern.

Sales within Asia continue to offset the US related weakness, however, we expect the TWE share price to remain under pressure.

Based on FY20 & FY21 EPS growth remaining in the 10 – 15% range, we have TWE EBIT growing from $660mn in FY19 to $850mn in FY21. This supports a forward yield of 3%.

We’re not holding TWE in our portfolio at present and we prepared today’s post on TWE as a reminder of the opportunity that lies ahead when the stock switches to buy conditions. We expect to see this in the first quarter of the New Year.

Downside target $15.50 – $16.50