Yield Names Remain Under Pressure

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Yield Names Remain Under Pressure

Yield sensitive names remain under pressure as the bond sell-off in the US continues. As bond prices trade lower, the yield is increasing. Higher yields, make interest rate sensitive names like infrastructure and property trusts less appealing.

The sell-off in domestic names such as APA, GMG, GPT, SGP, TLS, TCL, SYD, WFD & SCG has been significant. With many of these names now trading on yields within 4.5 to 6.5% range.

There’s a case to be made for the above stocks to find support as the outlook for interest rates begin to stabilise.

10yr
Chart – US10yr bond yield

The Yield Basket We’ve Been Tracking

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on The Yield Basket We’ve Been Tracking

Over the last two months, bond markets have been repricing the probability of a US rate increase. During that time, we’ve watched the US10YR yields trade up from 1.3% to 1.9% . As a consequence, money managers have sold-off defensive yield names. This has been most evident in ASX 50 names within the infrastructure and property sectors.

We maintain a positive interest in these names as the current share prices now have many of the yields offering 100 basis points, (or 1%), more than they were trading at 2 months ago.

WFD and GMG are now trading back on 4% yield, whereas TCL, SYD, GPT and SCG are on average trading near 5% yield.

The December FOMC rate decision meeting will likely be the catalyst for a  bounce, however, we’re not expecting these names to recapture the recent highs. Therefore, we’ll look to sell the rally into the early part of 2017. The algorithm engine will track these names and I’ll be certain to alert you to the next lower structural high, but for the time being, you may want to position around the short term bounce which could offer up to a 10% rally.

Chart - GMG
Chart – GMG
gpt
Chart – GPT
scg
Chart – SCG
sgp
Chart – SGP

 

wfd
Chart – WFD

 

Chart - TCL
Chart – TCL
Chart - SYD
Chart – SYD

Property Exposure – Are You Watching?

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Property Exposure – Are You Watching?

The recent market rotation towards growth assets and in particular, materials and financials, has resulted in selling utilities and property trusts. In many cases, these names have seen 10 to 20% correction.

The following post takes a quick look at some of the relevant chart patterns.

SCG.ASX (forward yield 4.9%)

scg

SGP.ASX (forward yield 5.5%)

sgp

WFD.ASX (forward yield 3.5%)

wfd

DXS.ASX (forward yield 5.2%)

dxs

GMG.ASX (forward yield 3.7%)

gmg

GPT.ASX (forward yield 5%)

gpt

MGR.ASX

mgr

On the utilities, we think that both Sydney Airports and Transurban should be back on the radar and maybe looking oversold.

SYD.ASX (forward yield 5%)

syd

TCL.ASX (forward yield 4.8%)

tcl

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Property Trust – Watch List Opportunities Update

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Property Trust – Watch List Opportunities Update

On the 2nd of September, we made a blog post highlighting a group of stocks to place on your watch list. Among these were a number of property trusts and their indicated buy zones. Since then, as anticipated, we’ve seen bond yields move higher and selling in defensive yield names continue. We’re now at a point where a number of the names on our preferred watch list are in the “go zone”.

This post revisits the property trust names, however, there’re other sectors too that are now showing multiple buy-side signals from our algorithm engines.

Westfield (WFD.ASX)

wfd

GPT Group (GPT.ASX)

gpt

Scentre Group (SCG.ASX)

scg

Stockland Group (SGP.ASX)

sgp

Goodman Group (GMG.ASX)

gmg

Buying Opportunities – add these to your watch list

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Buying Opportunities – add these to your watch list

Today’s report is a summary of what I’m watching following some of the recent price action in the market. On the 30th of August I wrote a blog post under the heading “Property Trusts” and the commentary there still remains relevant. If the Fed Reserve doesn’t raise rates in 2016, we’ll see the yield names rally 5% to 10%. With this in mind, WFD, GPT, SCG are worth keeping on your watch list. AGL, TCL, BXB, IAG, SUN and BLD have also been triggered by the algorithm engine as buying opportunities that should be tracked for an appropriate entry point.

Other names that we’re waiting for a buy signal on include JHX, SGR, QUB, RMD, TWE, SHL, CWN, AMP and NVT. Out of this group, QUB and CWN are the closest to the entry condition being triggered.

 

Property Trust – Buy Signals

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Property Trust – Buy Signals

There’s no denying that PE’s on the property trusts look stretched and we are likely facing a period of price consolidation. Earnings growth is attractive but yields have compressed too far. In some cases, yields on property trusts of barely 3% offer investors little risk reward. However, if you feel the US will not raise rates in September, you may share my view that we could see another bounce, (approximately 5%), yet to play out.

WFD, GPT and SCG are all on my radar as buy signals. I think we get a small bounce from here and it will then pay to sell tight covered calls to double the cash flow over the next 6 months, whilst still remaining exposed to the next round of dividends.

Feel free to contact me leon@investorsignals.com to discuss how we can help set up these strategies and others on your investment portfolio.

 

Scentre Group 1F16 Earnings Result

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Scentre Group 1F16 Earnings Result

SCG reported 1H16 NPAT of $1.15b on $0.116 cps up 2%+ on the same time last year. FY17 forecast growth of 3% or $0.23 cps places the stock on a forward yield into FY17 of 4.4% on a 90% payout ratio.

Potential for added growth from the development pipeline into FY17 and FY18 along with low interest rates underpin SCG. The stock is close to full value and a sideways consolidation is the most likely price action. Buy at $5.00 and sell at $5.45

SCG