Origin – Reaffirmed FY18 Guidance

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Origin – Reaffirmed FY18 Guidance

 ORG indicated it’s targeting a Crude Oil price of US$40 per barrel distribution break-even for FY20.

ORG hosted its 2017 investor day,  this week, at which time they reaffirmed their FY18 guidance with respect to capital expenditure, debt management and APLNG.

The market is encouraged by the potential for up-to $500m in cost savings,  ($110m OPEX and $400m CAPEX), over the next 2 – 3 years.

ORG will likely reinstate dividend distributions, building to $0.40 per share in FY19 and $0.50 in FY20.

These targets have ORG trading on a FY19 forward yield of 5%.

We continue to see ORG as a buy on the dip opportunity and look to keep exposure to the name in portfolios over the next 3 to 5 years.

Origin Energy

 

 

 

 

 

WPL And ORG Are Looking Good, Technically

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on WPL And ORG Are Looking Good, Technically

Over the last several months, there have been many questions asked about the likely direction of energy-related stocks.

The fundamentals in the Crude Oil market are difficult to forecast and the political climate, domestically, may impact the future revenue of electricity markets.

However, from a technical perspective, both ORG and WPL look like they may be setting up for a move higher.

We currently see reasonable upside targets at $30.75 in WPL and $8.00 in ORG.

Woodside Petroleum

Origin Energy

 

Algo Update – WOW & ORG

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Algo Update – WOW & ORG

As the Algo Engine identified the “higher low” price pattern in both Woolworths and Origin Energy, we’ve regularly highlighted these as preferred buying opportunities.

We’ve remained buyers of ORG and WOW throughout the past 12 months but now feel that we’re approaching a level where we see full value.

Resistance in ORG will likely be found at or near  $8.00 and WOW is likely to experience selling based on valuation grounds at or near $27.50.

Chart – WOW
Chart – ORG

 

 

 

 

 

 

ALGO UPDATE: ORG Shares Firm On NT Gas Discovery

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ALGO UPDATE: ORG Shares Firm On NT Gas Discovery

On June 23rd, the ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on ORG at $6.90.

Shares of ORG got a boost today as news of a multi-billion dollar gas resource was found in the Northern Territories.

Origin estimates that up to 6.6 trillion cubic feet of gas is in the area based on a 57-day production test. That volume is enough to cover Australia’s domestic gas needs for over five years.

We have a medium-term upside target of $8.00 and would consider ORG as a good buy/write strategy to add value to investor’s portfolios.

Origin

 

Algo Buy Signal – Origin

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Algo Buy Signal – Origin

Our Algo Engine has flagged a second buy signal within the uptrend on Origin that started back in January 2016.

The first “buy on the dip” signal occurred  in March 2017 at $6.25 and now a new Algo Engine buy signal has been triggered at $6.90.

WPL, OSH and ORG are all likely to find support and trade higher from the current price levels.

Chart – ORG

 

 

ETF Watch: Buy OOO For Mean Reversion Trade In Crude Oil

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on ETF Watch: Buy OOO For Mean Reversion Trade In Crude Oil

Over the last 10 trading sessions, WTI Crude Oil has dropped over 13% from $52.00 to last nights low of $45.20.

Technically, we see good support near the $43.75 area, which was the reversal low posted on May 5th.

Fundamentally, increased political tensions between OPEC members Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran could escalate into military engagement with some associated levels of supply disruption in the near-term.

As such, we have been looking to buy the dip in some of the local energy names like Origin Energy and  Oil Search. (The ALGO engine gave a buy signal on OSH yesterday)

Further, we have also suggested that investors looking for a mean reversion higher in Crude oil prices can buy the BetaShare Oil ETF with the symbol OOO.

OOO traded as high as $8.10 just a week ago and has now in the low $7.00 area.

BetaShare Crude Oil ETF

 

Origin Energy

Oil Search

 

Buy The Pullback In Origin

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Buy The Pullback In Origin

Origin Energy has been trading in a broad range between $6.70 and $8.10 over the last four months.

We recently took profits for client portfolios at $8.00 and are currently looking for a retracement into the $7.50 area to re-enter long positions.

The recent weakness in crude oil has had a dampening effect on various energy names. However, we feel Origin’s natural gas assets will keep the share price fairly well bid over the medium to longer-term.

Origin