NCM’s Q4 Production Up 15%

Posted on | by Todd

Shares of Newcrest mining have spiked over 4.5% higher to reach $21.00 in early trade.

The catalyst for the move was the release of their Q4 production numbers.

The Gold miner reported their overall production rose 15% for the 3 months to June 30th from 551,000 ounces to just under 635.000 ounces.

This improved result places their full year production in the upper end of their expected 2.25 to 2.35 million ounces. All-in sustained costs were unchanged at $795 per ounce.

We see the next area of chart resistance for NCM near $21.55, with a longer-term target in the $24.25 area.

Newcrest Mining

 

 

NCM Firms In Front Of Tomorrow’s Quarterly Report

Posted on | by Todd

Shares of Newcrest mining are consolidating near three-month lows in front of the release of their Quarterly production report tomorrow.

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on NCM on Monday at $20.04 and the stock has been added to our ASX Top 50 model portfolio.

The recent slide in Spot Gold appears to be finding support around the $1200.00 area, which is a net positive for the stock.

We have a medium-term upside target for NCM in the $24.25 area.

Newcrest Mining

Has Spot Gold Found A Near-Term Low?

Posted on | by Todd

After reaching an intra-day high just under $1370.00 in mid-April, the price of Spot Gold has dropped over 12% and matched a 1-year low of $1210.00 last week.

The recent strength in the USD, weakness in the Yuan and uncertainty over global trade tariffs are some the reasons used to explain the slide in the yellow metal over the last 2 months.

What is clear is that the technical picture in Gold is deeply oversold and due for a material correction higher.

As illustrated in the chart below, the last 8 times that Gold fell more than $90.00 over a 3-month period, the rally that followed averaged close to $150.00, or just under 13%.

Despite the recent weakness in Spot Gold, local Gold miners have performed reasonable well and have expanded production both domestically and abroad.

Our ALGO engine is now showing buy signals for NCM, SBM, NST, OGC, SAR and EVN.  

In addition, NST, EVN and NCM are included in our ASX Top 100 model portfolio.

We currently see the $1235.00 area in Spot Gold as an inflexion point which could drive the price higher and would be a net positive for these local Gold names.

 

ALGO Buy Signal For Newcrest Mining

Posted on | by Todd

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal on NCM into yesterday’s ASX close at $20.04.

This “higher low” price pattern is referenced to the intra-day low of $19.33 on March 21st.

NCM has now been added to our ASX Top 50 Model portfolio.

With Spot Gold prices pressing against key support near $1210.00, we would look to enter long for half an allocation now, and be prepared to add at lower levels.

Newcrest mining

Newcrest Gets A Lift From Citi Price Upgrade

Posted on | by Todd

Shares of NCM are over 1.5% higher to $21.40 in early trade after a Citi Research report upgraded the stock to “BUY” and raised their 12-month target price to $25.80 per share.

The report focused on the share price relative to the replacement costs of the assets, which suggests that NCM may end up as a takeover target for a larger mining company looking for Australian assets.

Considering that the performance of Spot Gold has been tepid over the last month, local gold mining shares have been well bid.

At current levels, we prefer adding to long positions in NCM and NST.

Newcrest

Northern Star

Will US “Stagflation” Be Bullish For Gold?

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Will US “Stagflation” Be Bullish For Gold?

One of the main policy points from Wednesday’s FOMC meeting was that the US Central bank will accept an overshoot in inflation even if overall GDP growth starts to slow……..more commonly known as Stagflation.

Stagflation is an economic condition which is characterized by higher inflation and lower GDP and employment growth, which is not bullish for equity markets and not bearish for Gold.

Over the last 6-months, Gold has been trading in a broad pennant formation bound by $1365 on the topside and supported at $1300 at the lower end of the range.

Due to recent USD strength, the yellow metal is currently trading near the bottom end of the range near $1315.

If US inflation rates continue to probe higher, we expect the USD/Gold correlation to soften. In an inflationary environment, Gold and the USD usually move higher simultaneously.

As illustrated in the charts below, the local gold mining stocks have been showing divergence with SBM, EVN and SAR near all-time highs, while NCM is trading at $21.55, almost $3.00 below its 52-week high.

Our base case is that Gold will rise over the medium-term, which should be supportive for the local mining names.

For more information on investment strategies within the Gold sector, call our office at 1-300-614-002.

Santa Barbara Mines

Saracens Mineral

Evolution

Newcrest Mining

NCM Remains Firm After Lower Production Guidance

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on NCM Remains Firm After Lower Production Guidance

Shares of NCM have reached a six-week high of $20.92 even though the mining giant has cut its full year gold output forecast.

The lower production guidance is mainly on the back of a tailing dam collapse which halted operations at its Cadia mine in NSW. Cadia is NCM’s biggest and lowest-cost mine.

NCM produced 575,791 ounces of gold in the three months to March 31, down 6%  from the previous quarter.

The miner now expects full year gold output to be between 2.25 and 2.35 million ounces, down from its previous estimate of between 2.4 and 2.7 million ounces.

We believe that NCM has more upside potential as the price of Gold remains stable above $1300.00 and the AUD/USD has just dropped 3% over the last 10 days.

Technically, the next resistance area is near the chart gap at $21.15. Above that level will point to the March high of $22.30.

NCM is part of our ASX Top 50 Model Portfolio.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quarterly Reports In Focus This Week

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Quarterly Reports In Focus This Week

There are two Quarterly production reports and an AGM this week which could offer trading opportunities for investors.

 OZL will hold its AGM on Tuesday,  and FMG and NCM will release their production reports on Tuesday and Thursday, respectfully.

Our ALGO engine is showing a buy signal for all three of these mining names and they are also part of our ASX Top 100 Model Portfolio.

The recent stability in Copper and Iron Ore has supported the shares prices of OZL and FMG, while the “range trading” in Gold has kept NCM active within the $19.60 to $20.30 price band.

For more information about investment opportunities in these names, call our office at 1-300-614-002.

Newcrest Mining

Fortescue Metals Group

Oz Minerals

Newcrest Firms As Spot Gold Approaches The Top Of The Range

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Newcrest Firms As Spot Gold Approaches The Top Of The Range

The price of Spot Gold has been trading in a broad “pennant” formation since early January.

The range of this pennant are bound by the January 25th high of $1365 and the March 19th low of $1307.

We believe that the balance of fundamental and technical analysis supports the idea that the pennant will be resolved to the upside with Gold trading back above $1365.

The share price of NCM has been beaten down about 15% since a tailing dam failure at their Cadia mine in NSW in early March.

With their quarterly production report scheduled to be released on April 26th, we believe the stock has found a solid base in the $19.40/50 area for a move back into the $22.00 handle over the medium-term.

Newcrest Mining

Spot Gold

Can Spot Gold Break Above $1370.00?

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Can Spot Gold Break Above $1370.00?

Over the last 6-months, the price of Spot Gold has been capped just below the $1370.00 level three times.

With the current price around $1350, the question now is: will Gold be capped again, or will it break over $1370 and head higher?

Looking at Friday’s Commitment of Traders report offers an interesting perspective. The numbers show that the speculators are long and the commercial accounts are very short.

As a rule, since the commercial accounts actually hold the Gold, they are more likely to cover their short exposure quickly.

As such, we see a growing likelihood that Spot Gold will trade back over $1370 for the first time since July 2016, over the medium-term.

This extension of the recent rally will lift local mining names such as NCM, SBM, EVN and SAR.

Newcrest Mining

Santa Barbara

Evolution Mining