Has The AUD Reached The RBA’s Pain Level?

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Has The AUD Reached The RBA’s Pain Level?

At the start of the year, the market consensus was for the Aussie Dollar to fall against the major currency pairs during 2017. So far this year, the AUD/USD has climbed 10% and almost touched .8000 last week.

At 1pm today, RBA chief Philip Lowe will be giving a speech in Sydney. Since many exporters look at .8000 as a pain level, it’s reasonable to expect Mr Lowe to comment about the level of the Aussie.

The strengthening AUD/USD has created a headwind for domestic companies with earnings exposed to the softening USD.

Four companies that we follow which have seen their share prices dampened due to a stronger Aussie are: BXB, CPU, ANN and JHX.

Australian Dollar

Computershare – Earnings Result 16th Aug

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Computershare – Earnings Result 16th Aug

Computershare reports earnings on the 16th August.

At 20x forward earnings and 2.6% dividend yield, we feel CPU will likely disappoint and deliver earnings below market expectations.

Any bounce in CPU from these levels will provide an opportunity to consider building new short exposure.

Chart – CPU

James Hardie trades at 26x forward earnings with a 2.7% forward yield.

Again, we consider this name expensive and likely to disappoint investors when JHX report earnings on the 8th August.

A rally back towards $21.00 will provide an opportunity to reset short exposure.

Chart – JHXJHX

 

 

Weaker Housing Data Could Drag On US GDP

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on Weaker Housing Data Could Drag On US GDP

Prior to the market open on Friday, the US Commerce Department announced that Housing Starts fell fort a third straight month in May and has reached the lowest level of new home construction in eight months.

This development, along with a drop in Consumer Sentiment and Building permits, suggest that general construction has declined broadly during 2017 and could be a headwind to economic growth over the second quarter of the year.

This slowdown may have earnings implications  for the US divisions of Boral and James Hardie.

 

 

 

 

James Hardie Support At $18.00

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on James Hardie Support At $18.00

Regular readers will recall that we’ve had a bearish bias on JHX since it broke the $22.50 level in the early part of May.

At that time, the stock was trading at 27 times earnings on a 2.2% annual yield

A weaker US house construction market combined with a general contraction in US retail sales has kept shares of JHX offered over the last several weeks.

We maintain our downside target of $18.00 per share over the medium-term.

James Hardie

 

JHX Points Lower On Weaker US Housing Data

Posted on | by Todd | Leave a Comment on JHX Points Lower On Weaker US Housing Data

Since trading as high as $23.20 on May 2nd, shares of JHX have dropped over 14% and are now trading below $19.80.

We posted a report on the blog on May 19th pointing out that JHX reported FY17 results which were below market expectations.

Overnight, US New Home Sales fell to 569,000, well short of the consensus expectation of 610,000. As new home construction continues to slide, we sell further downside range extension for JHX.

The new key support level comes in near the February low of $18.20.

James Hardie

 

James Hardie – Earnings Update

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on James Hardie – Earnings Update

James Hardie  half year (ended 30 September 2016) earnings show net operating profit of US$141m, an increase of 10% on the same time last year. Group Adjusted EBIT for the half US$204 million, also up 10% on last year.

The James Hardie earnings update supports our view that JHX remains well positioned to benefit from the ongoing recovery in US housing construction.

Overnight, US housing Starts data was released. On an annualised basis, October data showed 1.3m in October compared to expectations of 1.1m. Building Permits annualised 1.23 in October compared to expectations for 1.2m

FY17 revenue US$2b, EBITDA US$470m, EPS US$0.60 and DPS $0.44, placing the stock on a forward yield of 3%. We expect EPS growth of 10%+ in to FY17 and FY18.

Our algorithm engines triggered a buy signal earlier this week.

jhx
Chart – James Hardie

James Hardie – Buy Rec Update

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on James Hardie – Buy Rec Update

We recently highlighted James Hardie as a buy recommendation and we therefore draw your attention to the upcoming 2Q earnings result scheduled for release on Thursday.

Consensus expectation for FY17 net profit is around US$275m. This will mean JHX is delivering 15%+ EPS growth. It’s likely that a positive earnings trend can be supported by stronger demand for its products from North American consumers.

FY17 revenue $2b,  EBIT $400m, NPAT $275, EPS $0.65, DPS $0.44 places the stock on a forward yield of 3%

jhx
Chart – James Hardie (JHX)

Higher Low Pattern Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Higher Low Pattern Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist

The following group of stocks are in either established uptrends or, in recent months they’ve broken downtrends to begin building the early stages of a bullish “higher low” formation.

Many of these names have been mentioned previously in the blog and/or the monthly strategy video report. It’s worth loading these codes into your watch list and considering rebalancing your portfolio to include allocations towards some, or all of these names:

JHX, LLC, MQG, SHL, TWE, ANN, ANZ, ASX, CCL, CIM, COH, QUB, TAH, WOW & WPL.

With the lower growth names within the above basket, such as WOW & CCL, we compliment the position now with tight covered calls to enhance the yield to 10%+ per annum. With some of the other names, we give a little more breathing space as we expect 5 to 10% price appreciation before selling the call option overlay.

 

 

 

 

Buy Signals – Now Trading on Support

Posted on | by Leon Hinde | Leave a Comment on Buy Signals – Now Trading on Support

The following group of stocks offer above average earnings growth, structural uptrends and are currently trading back on support levels that warrant closer attention.

ASX, AMC, BXB, JHX RHC, SEK, SHL, SUN and TWE.

asx
Chart – ASX
Chart - AMC
Chart – AMC
bxb
Chart – BXB
jhx
Chart – JHX
sek
Chart – SEK
Chart - SHL
Chart – SHL
Chart - SUN
Chart – SUN
Chart - TWE
Chart – TWE

More detail on the Investor Signals portfolio allocations and derivative overlay strategy will be provided in the October ASX top 50 Video Market Report.