ALGO Update: Stay Short Bank of Queensland

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for BOQ on August 31st at $11.49.

Since then the share price has traded sideways to lower and has now broken a technical support level near $11.05.

BOQ will hold its AGM next Thursday, October 4th.

In addition to warnings about funding pressures and contracting margins, we also expect the bank to announce a $30 million restructuring charge during the meeting.

On balance, the combination of technical and fundamental weakness points to a return to the June lows near $9.60.

Bank of Queensland

ALGO Update: Stay Short Bank of Queensland

Shares of BoQ are trading lower for the third consecutive day and are now pressing initial support at $11.00 in early trade.

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal on August 28th at $11.28. The “lower high” pattern was referenced to the intra-day high of $12.00 posted on March 12th.

BoQ has been the focus of several recent downgrades ranging from “under-perform” to an outright “sell.”

The main concerns for the profitability of bank going forward are the weakening credit growth and higher offshore funding costs.

We see the next area of support near the $10.70 level, followed by the $9.60 low posted in mid-June.

Bank of Queensland

BOQ To Lift Key Lending Rates

BOQ has open the door for a full round of out-of-cycle rate hikes as the bank lifted its variable home loan rate and line of credit for both investors and owner-occupier loans.

Blaming rising funding costs, BOQ will raise both credit structures by 15 basis points effective July 2nd. 

With the RBA standing firm on rates until at least Q3 2019, we don’t expect BOQ to be the only  bank to snug rates higher on an out-of-cycle basis.

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal on BOQ on June 21st at $10.50. We maintain our negative outlook on the stock with a medium-term target near $9.40.

Bank of Queensland

ALGO Sell Signal For BOQ

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for BOQ into yesterday’s ASX close at $10.50.

The “lower high” chart pattern is referenced to the $10.80 high posted on April 17th.

Recent chart rotation points to a medium-term low at or near $9.40. Investors looking to short BOQ can use our SAXO Go trading platform.

For more information on trading CFD products, call our office at 1-300-614-002

Bank of Queensland

Stay Short BOQ and SUN

It was announced today that BOQ and SUN will be forced to send executives to face questioning from the royal commission when hearings resume later this month.

According to Kenneth Hayne, the line of questioning will focus on lending practices to small businesses over the last 10 years, many of which were tipped into default.

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal in SUN on November 9th at $14.20. Since then the stock has traded as low as $12.60 and is now back in the sell-zone near $14.20.

BOQ shares pushed against resistance at the $10.50 level last week and we have a medium-term downside target of $9.60.

BOQ

Suncorp

Bank of Queensland – Earnings review

Our Algo Engine generated a sell signal back in February when BOQ was trading at $13.00. The stock closed yesterday at $10.66.

Bank  of Queensland 1H18 earnings missed consensus by around 5%. Net profit after tax came in at $182 million and would have been much lower, if it was not for lower than expected bad and doubtful debt provisioning.

The result highlights quality concerns over underlying profitability.

With the stock trading on a 7%+ fully franked dividend, sell-offs will be met with some buying interest.

However, earnings headwinds and a down-turn in the credit cycle, suggests future “short” or sell signals from our Algo Engine are the preferred directional trades.

BoQ

 

 

BoA Slips Lower On Weaker FICC Growth

Bank of America reported a 34% rise in first-quarter profit last night, topping Wall Street estimates, as the bank benefited from higher interest rates and growth in loans and deposits.

However, BAC under-performed in fixed income, currency and commodities (FICC) trading because of a decline in bond issuance from corporations.

Trading revenue was up only 1%. Equities trading revenue, excluding items, rose 38%, while revenue from trading fixed income fell 13%.

BAC’s trading results mirrored those of rivals JP Morgan and Citigroup; revenue from stock trading rose at both the banks, but weakness in bond trading crimped total trading revenue growth, which is why their share prices remain soft.

To a large degree, the local banks face the same headwinds but with the added risk of the Royal Bank commission.

Hearings from the commission are back on this week with QBE and SUN included in the questioning over insurance related business practices.

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal late last year in both QBE and SUN at $10.40 and $14.05, respectfully.

We remain cautious of the local banking names and see the risk continue to be skewed to the downside, especially in the regional names like BOQ and BEN.

QBE

SUNCORP

BoQ

Bendigo Bank

 

BOQ Is Back Below $12.00

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for BOQ at $12.74 on February 27th.

The technical “lower high” price structure is related to the November 30th high at $13.20 and the November 1st high at $13.40.

We expected the $13.10 resistance level to hold before reverting back below the $12.00 handle.

CFD traders who took this trade can look to cover short positions in the $11.90/95 area.

We maintain our short bias on the banking sector in general, but consider BOQ mildly over-sold.

Bank of Queensland

 

 

ALGO Sell Signal For BOQ

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for BOQ into Friday’s ASX close at $12.74.

The technical “lower high” price structure is related to the November 30th high at $13.20 and the November 1st high at $13.40.

BOQ raised $350 million from its Capital Notes offer in late 2017 after strong investor demand for the offer saw it increase from $325 million.

This corporate action saw the share prices post a mild rally before sliding down to $11.72 on February 8th.

We expect the next resistance level near $12.90 before trading back below $12.00 over the next few weeks.

Bank of Queensland

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Banks Continue To Slide Lower

Since posting a intra-day high of $12.05 on January 10th, shares of BEN have dropped over 6% and have slipped to a 2-month low of $11.32 in early trade.

Similarly, shares of BOQ have lost 4.6% since the start of the year and posted a 5-month low of $12.26 last Friday.

Recent mortgage forecasts have illustrated that in an overall loan market which is contracting, the regional banks will face the strongest headwinds to achieving the margins and loan growth that they have created over the last three years.

Our ALGO engine triggered a sell signal for BEN on August 16th at $12.45, and for BOQ at $15.50 on August 7th.

This has been a popular “short” trade for investors on our SAXOGo platform.

We expect the next level of downside support at $11.00 for BEN and $12.05 for BOQ.

Bendigo Bank
 

Bank of Queensland