Tag: ASX:AMP

AMP will need to address a wide range of issues including the Royal Commission responses, grandfathering and impact of Budget proposals in order for investors to understand AMP’s sustainable level of profitability. 

Investors are also looking for the CEO to outline  the longer-term group strategy. With many anticapiting some sort of restructure and the separation of the funds management business away from the advice model. 

1H18E profit guidance came in lower than consensus expectations at  $490-$500 million.

AMP is the worst performing stock in the ASX 50 model.

We have two under performing stocks, AMP and FMG. Both businesses face unique structural issues that have weighed on their respective share prices.

We feel investors will be rewarded for slowly accumulating AMP shares at discounted levels but it is very difficult to see when the inflection point occurs.

AMP goes ex div $0.145 on 23rd August and we have the stock trading on a  forward yield of 7%.

AMP

AMP continues to trade higher as the price action builds on the “higher high & higher low” formation.

AMP was added into the ASX50 model in June at $5.00.  Our upside target for the stock is $5.40 – $5.50.

AMP

Our Algo Engine generated a recent buy signal in AMP.

With the price action finding support at $4.75 and now trading into the $5.15 range, we continue to see upside momentum.

AMP looks well positioned to benefit from domestic trends in mandated super and search for yield in infrastructure & property.

AMP is currently in our ASX 20 and ASX 50 model portfolios.

AMP

One of Australia’s largest money managers, AMP, has caved in on the pressure from index and computerized trading and has dropped their fees, and is looking to sack most of their active equity managers. 

The bulk of the $29 billion in funds the firm now manages will be rolled into lower-cost strategies including existing quantitative funds within AMP Capital. 

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal for AMP at $4.80 on August 21st.

We see key chart resistance in the $5.25 area and would look to exit long positions at, or near, that level.

AMP

Our ALGO engine triggered a buy signal in AMP at $5.06 going into yesterday’s ASX close.

Since posting a tepid earnings report on August 10th, AMP shares have dropped from $5.45 down to yesterday’s low of $5.05.

The ALGO picked up on the “higher low” pattern since the initial support at $5.00 held and the recent low at $4.90 was not challenged.

Taking into account the earnings report showed revenue up 25% to $7.6 billion, and the interim dividend was lifted 4% to 14.5 cents, we see scope for some capital appreciation in the AMP from these levels.

Investors should look at placing a stop-loss order just under the June 9th low of $4.90.

AMP

Shares of AMP have been carving out a triple-top pattern since October of last year. Since then, the share price has topped out around the $5.30 level on January 9th, and again on April 4th.

Regular readers will recall that AMP posted a loss of $344 million back in February. This was the company’s first full year loss since 2003 and exposed ongoing concerns about their life insurance and wealth protection divisions.

We are currently holding a $5.00/4.60 put spread into June and suggest investors look at downside opportunities from AMP.

Our near-term target is $4.60, but see scope for a move back to the November low of $4.30.

Our Algo Engine triggered a short signal in AMP on the 9th of January when the stock was trading $5.30. The current chart pattern suggests the bounce off the recent low could be running out of steam and selling pressure may resume again.

Chart – AMP

AMP FY16 normalised profit $486m. AMP announced a $500m on market buyback. 

FY18 reported profit is likely to remain flat on FY17 numbers and AMP’s ability to deliver against cost out in FY17 and continued cost discipline in future periods is the key to sustaining group EPS growth.

FY18 profit is likely to remain in the range of $900m – $930m, EPS $0.35 and DPS of $0.29 placing the stock on a forward yield 5.7%.

We remain cautions on AMP until the technical picture becomes more supportive.  Support may begin building above $5.00.