On April 25, 2024, Intel reported its Q1 FY24 earnings with revenue of $12.7 billion, a 9% increase YoY, and non-GAAP EPS of $0.18, both beating Wall Street expectations. However, the revenue guidance of $12.5 billion to $13.5 billion fell short of Wall Street’s expectation of $13.63 billion, leading to a plunge in the stock price to around $30 per share.
Intel is a high-risk recovery play in the chip space. We consider the current share price to be at an inflection point, and it will begin to rise in mid-to-late 2024. The first positive catalyst is the US government’s CHIPs Act funding payment. A multi-year recovery should follow, driven by innovation and AI data center sales.