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Limited Upside In QBE

QBE Insurance posted an $844 million net profit on May 3rd, which was their best result since 2010.

By May 11th, the share price had raced to a new high for the year at $13.60.

With internal momentum indicators beginning to turn lower, we are suggesting to exit long positions or sell the $13.50 covered calls into September.

We expect to see good support in the $12.00 area as a medium term target.

QBE

 

Chart Watch – XJO

As an update to our recent Chart Watch on the XJO, we highlight again the lower high structure that has now formed. We were expecting a bounce into the 5790 – 5850 level before further selling pressure. Yesterday the price action hit resistance at 5796 and today’s open looks weak against a  positive lead from the US.

Chart – XJO

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Boral -FY18 Outlook

The market remains optimistic about future earnings growth for Boral. The recent Headwater acquisition in the US provides Boral with added exposure to the US housing market. Domestically, Boral is well placed to benefit from the an increase in large scale infrastructure projects.

We feel some caution is warranted though, given the weaker trends emerging is both US and domestic housing construction data. The stock trades on 19x forward earnings and less than a 4% yield.

FY18 revenue is likely to be $5.8b, EBITDA $1.15b, Net Profit $490m and DPS of $0.29.

Chart – BLD

 

 

 

 

JHX Points Lower On Weaker US Housing Data

Since trading as high as $23.20 on May 2nd, shares of JHX have dropped over 14% and are now trading below $19.80.

We posted a report on the blog on May 19th pointing out that JHX reported FY17 results which were below market expectations.

Overnight, US New Home Sales fell to 569,000, well short of the consensus expectation of 610,000. As new home construction continues to slide, we sell further downside range extension for JHX.

The new key support level comes in near the February low of $18.20.

James Hardie