We forecast JHX FY17 NPAT of US$250m vs Management’s guidance of US$245-255.
On FY17 numbers JHX is looking expensive. FY17 EPS of $0.56 places the stock on a PE of 29x and a 2.4% yield.
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Based on the current share price valuation, the market is looking for a 30% lift in underlying earnings into FY18, to support an EPS target of $0.72 and a reduction in the forward PE to 22x.
The above assumptions seem overly optimistic.
